Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold market, highlighting the key fundamental and technical drivers behind current price action. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights necessary to navigate the market effectively and make informed decisions.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced this week that his administration has reached a trade agreement with Japan. Additionally, reports suggesting progress toward a 15% trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union have boosted investor confidence. Despite Trump’s ongoing calls for lower interest rates, the market does not anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July. Trump has continued to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his rate stance, even calling for his resignation.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on the release of flash PMI data, which will offer fresh insight into global economic conditions and could impact demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision is expected to inject some volatility into the markets and potentially influence the XAU/USD pair.
The recent upward movement within a rising channel since the start of the month signals a well-defined short-term uptrend. Supporting this outlook, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain positive, suggesting that gold is likely to find solid support near the $3,375 level—previously a strong horizontal resistance.
While renewed strength above the $3,400 mark could face resistance around the $3,438 static barrier, increased profit-taking may trigger a pullback toward the $3,300 region.
Technically, the short-term Stochastic Oscillator is at 48, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51—both reflecting neutral momentum with potential for directional movement.
● Stochastic Oscillator: Measures market momentum by comparing the closing price to its recent price range. Readings above 80 indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
● Relative Strength Index (RSI): Evaluates the speed and magnitude of price changes to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. A reading above 70 signals overbought territory, while below 30 indicates oversold conditions.
In the complex and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making well-informed investment decisions. Our report aims to provide a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold trading effectively.