Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to navigate the market with confidence.
Following the second day of US-China trade talks in London on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that both sides reached a framework for a potential deal aimed at easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. This optimism gave the US Dollar a modest boost against major rivals. However, gains remain tentative after a US Appeals Court upheld President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, keeping uncertainty around US trade policy elevated.
This lingering uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices higher. Meanwhile, traders are cautious ahead of the key US CPI data, which could reshape expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Markets currently assign a 52% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. May CPI is projected to rise by 0.2%, with core inflation expected to edge up to 0.3%—potentially marking the first signs of tariff-related price pressures.
Gold maintains its short-term bullish bias, with buyers continuing to defend key support at the confluence of the 21-day Moving Average and the Fibonacci Retracement level of April’s record rally, near $3,300. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midline, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
To shift the near-term outlook, sellers would need a daily close below $3,287, which could open the door toward a retest of $3,250. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near $3,362, with further barriers at $3,400 and $3,430 if the rebound gains traction. Momentum indicators show the Stochastic Oscillator at 57 and the RSI at 53, both supportive of a continued upward bias, albeit with room for consolidation.
Stochastic Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest the asset is oversold.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures the magnitude of recent price changes to assess overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 signals overbought levels, whereas a reading below 30 points to oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion market, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a well-rounded perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold trading with greater confidence.