Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive examination of the gold market, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights needed to navigate the market with confidence and clarity.
Spot Gold remains under pressure near a fresh weekly low around $3,330, as renewed demand for the US Dollar weighs on the metal. Financial markets were rattled by the latest US inflation data. While the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) earlier in the week appeared relatively benign, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised to the upside, signaling stronger-than-expected inflation at the wholesale level.
In July, the headline PPI rose at an annualized rate of 3.3%, while the core reading surged to 3.7%—well above both the previous month’s 2.6% and the market forecast of 2.9%. These hotter-than-expected figures have dampened optimism for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, expectations for a September cut remain intact. According to the FedWatch Tool, markets are still pricing in a 90.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, slightly down from 94.3% prior to the PPI release.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD continues to trade within a narrow intraday range, hovering just below a flat 20-day moving average, which currently acts as dynamic resistance. The 100-day SMA still maintains a bullish slope but is showing signs of waning momentum. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain in neutral territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) edging slightly lower—reflecting the underlying weakness in price action.
In the near term, the 4-hour chart suggests a downside bias. The pair is trading below both the 100 and 200-period moving averages, which are currently lacking clear direction. Technical indicators have flattened out in negative territory, indicating that the recent bounce lacks conviction and does not yet signal a meaningful recovery. The short-term Stochastic Oscillator stands at 53, while the RSI is at 48—both reinforcing a cautious outlook.
Stochastic Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specified period. Readings above 80 indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest the asset may be oversold.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): A technical indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price movements to assess overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 signals overbought levels, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion market, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a well-rounded perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold trading with greater confidence.