Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold market, highlighting the key fundamental and technical drivers behind current trends. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights necessary to navigate the market with clarity and confidence.
Gold prices struggle to build on Thursday’s strong rebound from the $3,120 level — the lowest since April 10 — and face renewed selling pressure during Friday’s Asian session. The 90-day US-China trade truce has eased tensions in global markets, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and weighing on its price.
Meanwhile, recent US economic data has indicated signs of inflationary pressure, reinforcing expectations for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. This has pushed US Treasury yields lower, keeping the US Dollar on the back foot and offering some support to non-yielding assets such as gold. The agreement between the US and China to lower tariffs and pause further escalation has marked a significant de-escalation in trade tensions. Additionally, comments from President Trump about ongoing trade talks with India, Japan, and South Korea reflect broader efforts to stabilize international trade relations.
The recovery from a more than one-month low has lost momentum near the 200-period Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, around the $3,258 level, while daily chart oscillators remain in negative territory. This suggests caution is warranted, and it may be wise to wait for a decisive move above this zone with strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent downtrend in XAU/USD has bottomed out. Currently, the Stochastics Oscillator stands at 37 and the RSI at 42, both indicating a lack of bullish conviction.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares the closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically signal overbought conditions, while readings below 20 indicate oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): This indicator measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. An RSI above 70 suggests an overbought market, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold conditions.
In the constantly evolving bullion market, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to deliver a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold trading with confidence and clarity.